Holiday Season, Fraud Season
Fraud surges during the Golden Quarter as cybercriminals exploit high-volume holiday shopping. Growing risks make fraud a major business cost.
The Holiday Season Is Also Fraud Season
Every year we celebrate the Golden Quarter, from Black Friday to Christmas, as the most profitable period in retail. But for cybercriminals, this is the busiest time of the year too.
Fraud does not grow steadily during the holidays. It explodes.
💰 The FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Center reported that in 2024, cyber-enabled fraud accounted for 13.7 billion dollars in losses, making up 83 percent of all reported losses.
💰 The Federal Trade Commission reported that consumers lost more than 12.5 billion dollars to fraud in 2024, a 25 percent increase over 2023.
📈 During the 2024 “Cyber Five” shopping period, TransUnion found that 4.2 percent of attempted e-commerce transactions in the U.S. were suspected fraud, with the global rate at 4.6 percent.
📈 LexisNexis Risk Solutions found that first-party fraud, including friendly fraud and false refund claims, rose significantly in 2024, becoming a leading portion of global fraud events.
As transaction volume surges in Q4, scammers gain more cover. High speed, high pressure shopping environments create the perfect conditions for mistakes.
The true cost of fraud is far higher than the amount stolen. Chargebacks, operational expenses, customer support, reputational damage, and fees often turn a small incident into a large financial hit. Many of these losses are not fully visible until Q1.
Retailers are focused on capturing as much revenue as possible during the Golden Quarter. Attackers are focused on blending in with the noise. More volume equals more opportunity. More urgency equals more vulnerability.
My take is simple. If the Golden Quarter keeps growing, the cost of doing business during it may outpace the upside for companies that are not prepared. Fraud is not only a security issue. It is a unit economics issue.
Besides everyday best practices recommended to consumers and retailers, are we doing something else to combat fraud during the Golden Quarter?
By “we” I mean cybersecurity practitioners, business owners, law enforcement, and consumers.
Would love to hear what others are seeing on the ground.
Interested in the economics behind cybersecurity?